Too Big to Be Contained

Well, the oil slick is getting bigger. 42, 000 gallons/day is what has been quoted. However, this article suggests the amount could be as much as five times that value.

Hm.

Well, let's look at that.

42, 000 gallons is 1, 000 barrels. (1 barrel is 42 US gallons.) So, we're now talking about 5000 barrels of oil/day.

Remember the Exxon Valdez? The EV carried, get this, up to 1.48 million barrels of oil. It spilled 10.8 million gallons-- 257, 143 barrels. We will call this value the unit for an oil spill, a valdez.

1,000 barrels, then, is .004 valdez-- 4 millivaldez of spill.

Now, this is not to be sneezed at. But the picture above from NASA (here) shows that it can be seen from space. Hear that? From space!

Hm, again. This blog entry suggests the number may well be under reported. They're suggesting as much as 20,000 barrels/day with a cumulative effect of 6 million gallons-- over half a valdez. And more coming every day.

The Exxon Valdez effects are still present today, over twenty years later, in Prince William Sound. However, there are two interesting things here. One is the PWS is way, way north and the ocean temperatures rarely get much about 40 degrees F. The other is that PSW opens broadly to the Pacific Ocean so one could expect a good dilution factor-- presuming the temperature ever gets high enough for any real liquidity of the crude.

The oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico is vastly different. First, the temperatures are way, way higher. (They are about 71 degrees right now.) Second, the Gulf of Mexico isn't open to the Atlantic the same way as PWS is open to the Pacific.

I make the following prediction: given the above, the oil will land in one areas or series of areas but will be cycling around the gulf for a long time. Since it is quite likely the spill will not be properly contained or capped for some time, I expect the total quantity of oil to significantly exceed the amount released by the Valdez.

New Orleans and Gulfport are just the oil's first port of call.
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Wall of Idiots
Stop Too Big To Fail
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Claude Allegre
Crazy American Legislation
Duncan Hunter R-CA
The Death Panel Meme
Michele Bachmann
Mitch McConnell and here
Scientists and the Public hear different things
KFC Double Down

Links of Interest
The Economist on Climategate
Krugman on climate change
The spiral of biologic time
White Nose Syndrome update
Beetlecam Brothers
Unusual petri cultures
Tentacular place settings
A gallery of robot spiders
Iceland Eruption Photographs
Eruptions on the sun
Printing skin
V: Design for the First world

DIY
Resonator guitar from acoustic guitar
Paracord: Leatherman pouch, chair, bottle carrier, monkey fist,
Watermelon basket
Altering sandals for pregnant feet
Granola
PVC 101
Hi-visibility badges for biking/running
Litmus paper
Vermiculture and here
Cold frame
Craft or nail files
Linocuts
Glass etching
Bike tree
Gold sluice